2024 Presidential Election Predictions

Updating the Average for Each Candidate in the 2024 Presidential Polls

Accounting for Poll Recency, Sample Size, Methodology, and House Effects

Current Electoral College Ratings for the 2024 Presidential Election from Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report's current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election, based on a map of the potential electoral college outcomes, show the following:

• Biden: 236 electoral votes (44%)
• Trump: 202 electoral votes (37%)
• Other: 100 electoral votes (19%)

Our Polling Averages Track the Latest Trends in the Presidential Race

Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race using data from national and battleground state polls. Developed with a team of scholars at Columbia University, our forecast combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the race.

538's Forecast is Based on a Combination of Polls

538's forecast, which gives Harris a 19% chance of winning the national popular vote by 10 percentage points, is based on a combination of polls.

Additional Key Points

• Polls are just a snapshot of the race at a single point in time. They can be influenced by a variety of factors, including the methodology used, the sample size, and the timing of the poll.
• It is important to consider the house effects of polls. House effects are the systematic biases that different polling organizations have. These biases can be due to a variety of factors, including the way the poll is conducted, the type of respondents who are polled, and the weighting of the data.
• When interpreting polls, it is important to look at the trend over time rather than just the latest poll. This will help you to identify any potential changes in the race.

### Conclusion The 2024 presidential election is still a long way off, but the polls are already starting to provide some insights into the race. It is important to remember that these polls are just a snapshot of the race at a single point in time and that they can be influenced by a variety of factors. However, by considering the recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects of the polls, you can get a more accurate picture of the state of the race.